Real estate prices have surged to their highest level since 2013, after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced it was forecasting the nation’s total residential construction capacity to be 3.9 million dwellings by 2021.
But in recent weeks, the outlook has changed.
The ABS’ latest construction report shows that just over half the construction jobs in 2021 are expected to be in regional and remote areas, and only a fraction of those are expected in the state of New South Wales (NSW).
Despite this, the ABS predicts that the number of dwelling units in Australia will continue to rise.
With growth in housing construction expected to slow, it is expected to continue to shrink the number and number of dwellings in Australia.
Despite the ABS’ projections, the national unemployment rate is expected, at 5.1 per cent, to be below 5 per cent in 2021.
In contrast, in Queensland, where unemployment is expected at 4.1, the unemployment rate in 2021 is forecast to be 7.6 per cent.
The ABS has forecast that the unemployment level in the states of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia will be 7 per cent by 2021, while in Queensland it is projected to be 6.5 per cent and in South Australia it is forecast at 6.2 per cent (the latter being the lowest in the nation).
In Victoria, unemployment is projected at 3.8 per cent at the end of 2021.
But it is the unemployment of Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory (NT) that will have the most impact on the growth of housing construction.
In NSW, Indigenous Australians are forecast to account for over half of the total construction jobs that will be created in 2021, up from less than a third in 2013.
However, the NT is a region with high levels of unemployment, particularly among the young.
While Indigenous Australians have been under-represented in construction jobs over the past few years, this year is set to be the first time they are projected to account only for 2.8 percent of the jobs created by 2021 in the region.
ABS forecasts that the NT will see the largest number of jobs in housing and the second largest in manufacturing.
And while the construction industry is expected increase by more than 4,000 jobs over 2021, it will still account for only 1.5 percent of all construction jobs, compared to 3.1 percent in 2013 (NSWA).
In the South Australian region, construction is forecast for the second-highest growth in 2021 with a projected increase of 1.6 percent.
But the region’s unemployment rate will also be above 5.0 per cent compared to 5.2 percent in NSW and 5.4 per cent nationally (NS).
However, while housing construction is expected in NSW to increase by almost 4,500 jobs, it would still account only 2.5 million of the nation, while employment in manufacturing will be lower in the ACT (-2,000).
In WA, construction will be the fastest growing sector of the economy, increasing by 2,500 to 4,700 jobs over 2020.
However in Western Australia, the construction sector is projected for a decline in construction over 2021.
This is due to the impact of a downturn in mining and energy industries.
However, it should be noted that employment in the construction and manufacturing industries will still increase by 2.4 million jobs over this period, compared with a 5.3 million increase for the mining and petroleum industries.